2023 Super bowl odds: Over/under total points prediction
While much of the 2023 Super Bowl betting activity is focused on side action, there’s plenty to break down regarding the total – which has already seen some major movement ahead of Sunday’s matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs.
The total opened anywhere from 49 to 50 at most shops immediately following the conference championship round. The former number didn’t last long, with the market consensus reaching 50 within days before creeping up as high as 51 later in the week.
The total currently sits at 50.5 at BetMGM in the hours leading up to the 2023 Super Bowl, with sharps taking a decided stance on the over and public bettors nibbling on the under at an elevated number.
Here’s how we’d bet the total for Sunday’s big game, which kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
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Super Bowl 2023: Eagles vs. Chiefs over/under total
(via BetMGM)
- Total: 50.5 (over -115)
Super Bowl 2023 total prediction and analysis
At a glance, it’s easy to see why sharp money is favoring the over in Sunday’s matchup, which features two of the best offenses in the league.
In the regular season, Kansas City led the league in points per game (29.2) and yards per game (413.6) and paced the field in offensive DVOA, ranking first in pass offense and ninth in rush offense. Fittingly, Philadelphia flipped those two marks – ranking first in rush offense DVOA and ninth in pass offense DVOA – while ranking third in points (28.1) and yards (389.1) and setting an NFL record for rushing touchdowns in a full season (39).
Clearly, these teams can score. But there are enough concerns for both offenses to hesitate before firing off an over bet.
In theory, the Eagles should be able to put up points as it’s done all postseason behind its elite offensive line. And, frankly, I think they will. That said, Jalen Hurts hasn’t looked the same throwing the ball since he injured his right shoulder in Week 15, and this Chiefs defense has played like one of the best in the league over the back half of the season.
Similarly, there’s plenty of talent on this Chiefs offense, but injuries play a significant role there, too. The biggest concern, obviously, is Patrick Mahomes’ injured right ankle, which still looked to be ailing him despite his heroic performance in the AFC Championship. His receiving corps also sustained major blows in that game and likely won’t be at 100% by Sunday.
That’s a concerning development ahead of this matchup with Philly’s vaunted defense, which boasts a devastating combo of the league’s best secondary and most devastating pass rush. The Eagles led the league in sacks (70) while allowing the second-fewest passing yards (301.5) and recording the fourth-most interceptions (17) in the regular season.
Remember, it was just two years ago that Kansas City’s offense – which was arguably better than it is now – was held to just nine points in the Super Bowl against a Buccaneers defense that feels awfully similar to the Eagles’. And while the Chiefs’ offensive line is better now, Philly’s defensive front might be its biggest test since Mahomes took over in 2018.
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All of that begs a strong look at the under, which has cashed in four straight Super Bowls despite similarly potent offenses in those matchups. In fact, of the 13 Super Bowls with a total of 50 or higher, the under has hit in nine of them (69.2%), including seven of the last eight and each of the Chiefs’ two trips under Andy Reid and Mahomes.
We’ve also seen six straight unders since the divisional round, including two each from these two clubs. Last week’s conference championship round featured four of the seven highest-scoring offenses from the regular season; those four teams averaged just over 20 points apiece.
This number is a tick too high for comfort, especially given the trend of dominant defenses showing out in the big game. With both quarterbacks operating at less than full strength, this feels like a clear spot to fade one of the highest totals in Super Bowl history.
2023 Super Bowl total pick
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